You say:
“Though, I believe that Apple got where it is, today, with the iPhone by accident (or serendipity) rather than by strategic planning.

The original iPhone was a closed system; then Apple (reluctantly) provided tools for writing iPhone web apps… Yech!
”

I will agree with you that even Apple has been surprised by the phenomenal success of the app store. However, I disagree with the rest of your statements.

Apple ALWAYS planned to open up the iPhone to developers – just not at first. These guys are very smart and in some ways conservative. They knew that they were going into new territory with a cell phone, and they wanted to minimize the number of distractions narrow the dimensions for error. So they created the revolutionary UI, but limited other features, and put it out on only one network. This allowed them to limit the problems that came up and to more quickly identify the causes and fix them. it also allowed them to judge the degree of success they would have before opening up to outside apps.

Look back on what actually happened. They DID have quite a few problems, but they were able to address them in a short time frame and thus meet the very high expectations that Apple customers have. The result was the extraordinary satisfaction ratings they achieved.

Once this “break-in” period was over, then they added features and released the SDK & Apps store.

Personally, I believe this was their plan form the beginning. Tho they were probably stunned by the interest in the app store by both developers and users.

Oh, sorry, I thought I was indulging my techno-porn device fetish on thestreet.com, with my favorite techno-porn star, Gary Krakow. I just love it when he has a breathless article about BlackBerry, right next to an ad for….BlackBerry.

All kidding aside, thanks for the insight, it’s refreshing to read something deep and insightful about Apple’s strategy.

One additional thing that Apple has going for it related to apps that none of the other phone makers has – the iTouch. Apple may have sold only 17 million iPhones, but when you add 13 million iTouches sold, it brings the number of devices an app writer is writing for to over 30 million. All with nearly identical hardware and identical OS’s so that the headache of “dumbing down” an app to play on the lowest common denominator device is not present. Ask a developer of apps for WinMo or Symbian how easy it is to write a full-featured app that can be used by a wide audience is. Apple’s ecosystem makes it extremely easy to develop an app for a large audience with minimal compatability issues, and that is a HUGE plus for developers, as well as something no other phone maker can match.

Huge moat, indeed.

Why do you discount what Jobs said to John Markoff of NYTimes on Jan 22 2007 and at AllThingsD on May 30 2007 about Apple trying to find a way to secure applications and it would take time? Wouldn’t one think those comments point directly to an SDK already in process? (SDK was also awaiting the completion of Leopard on which it was based).

Given what has happened, you should really watch again the Jan 22 2007 intro by Jobs. It’s clear that he saw iPhone as the second coming of the Mac (which is a platform). The whole “web apps” thing was typical Apple deception, as the SDK wasn’t ready and Apple wasn’t going to give a clear reading to any competitor.